Fed funds rate

Economics · KXFED · 150 markets · 7 live · $713k traded

Implied probability by strike

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢$0$2$4KXFED-26OCT-T4.00: 18¢closes 2026-10-28T17:55:00Z (1)KXFED-27APR-T4.25: 75¢KXFED-27APR-T4.50: 46¢closes 2027-04-28T17:55:00Z (2)KXFED-27JUL-T0.25: 79¢KXFED-27JUL-T0.50: 76¢KXFED-27JUL-T0.75: 75¢KXFED-27JUL-T1.50: 74¢closes 2027-07-28T17:55:00Z
shaded band: lognormal-cdf/v1 posterior, 95% credible — median $2, fitted 266.9h ago in 2.0s

Model minus market — where the fit disagrees

-91.7¢+0.0¢+91.7¢KXFED-27OCT-T0.25: market 80.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +20.00¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T0.50: market 80.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +19.99¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T0.75: market 80.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +19.98¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T1.00: market 80.0¢, model 99.9¢, edge +19.95¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T1.25: market 80.0¢, model 99.9¢, edge +19.90¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T1.50: market 80.0¢, model 99.8¢, edge +19.83¢ (P=0.99)KXFED-27OCT-T1.75: market 80.0¢, model 99.7¢, edge +19.74¢ (P=0.99)KXFED-27OCT-T2.00: market 80.0¢, model 99.6¢, edge +19.56¢ (P=0.99)KXFED-27OCT-T2.25: market 80.0¢, model 83.3¢, edge +3.28¢ (P=0.64)KXFED-27OCT-T2.50: market 80.0¢, model 1.5¢, edge -78.53¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T2.75: market 80.0¢, model 0.4¢, edge -79.60¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T3.00: market 80.0¢, model 0.3¢, edge -79.72¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T3.25: market 80.0¢, model 0.2¢, edge -79.78¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T3.75: market 50.0¢, model 0.1¢, edge -49.85¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T4.25: market 79.0¢, model 0.1¢, edge -78.90¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T4.50: market 49.5¢, model 0.1¢, edge -49.41¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T4.75: market 50.0¢, model 0.1¢, edge -49.92¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T5.25: market 48.0¢, model 0.1¢, edge -47.94¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T5.50: market 50.0¢, model 0.1¢, edge -49.95¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T5.75: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -49.96¢ (P=1.00)KXFED-27OCT-T6.00: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -49.96¢ (P=1.00)$0$3$6green: model above market · opacity = posterior confidence

Busiest 25 of 150

MarketClosesBidAskLastVolumeUpdated
Above 3.50% 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z 98¢100¢99¢72.0k2026-10-10T08:54:34Z
Above 3.75% 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z 98¢99¢98¢104.8k2026-10-10T18:23:31Z
Above 4.00% 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z 82¢85¢81¢86.5k2026-10-10T19:20:29Z
Above 4.50% 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z 3¢5¢6¢327.0k2026-10-10T18:17:14Z
Above 3.50% 2026-10-28T17:55:00Z 99¢100¢99¢28.4k2026-10-10T01:16:44Z
Above 4.00% 2026-10-28T17:55:00Z 17¢18¢18¢405.0k2026-10-10T19:41:24Z
Above 4.25% 2026-10-28T17:55:00Z 0¢1¢1¢80.6k2026-10-10T18:26:22Z
Above 4.25% 2027-04-28T17:55:00Z 74¢76¢74¢31.7k2026-10-10T19:38:47Z
Above 4.50% 2027-04-28T17:55:00Z 3¢88¢55¢10.6k2026-10-10T19:38:12Z
Above 0.00% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 60¢100¢99¢302026-10-10T11:28:03Z
Above 0.25% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 60¢100¢99¢302026-10-10T11:28:03Z
Above 0.50% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 60¢100¢99¢302026-10-10T11:28:03Z
Above 0.75% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 60¢100¢99¢302026-10-10T11:28:03Z
Above 1.00% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 60¢100¢99¢302026-10-10T11:28:04Z
Above 1.25% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 60¢100¢99¢302026-10-10T11:28:04Z
Above 4.00% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 75¢100¢97¢100.1k2026-10-08T14:13:48Z
Above 4.25% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 58¢95¢94¢20.3k2026-10-10T16:19:25Z
Above 4.50% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 50¢100¢50¢2.2k2026-10-10T18:54:11Z
Above 5.50% 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z 0¢22¢4¢50.8k2026-10-01T07:00:04Z
Above 4.50% 2027-01-27T18:55:00Z 1¢89¢28¢1002026-10-10T06:11:54Z
Above 4.25% 2027-06-09T17:55:00Z 62¢78¢78¢52.6k2026-10-10T07:02:02Z
Above 5.00% 2027-03-17T17:55:00Z 1¢25¢25¢11.2k2026-10-09T23:01:59Z
Above 5.75% 2027-03-17T17:55:00Z 1¢32¢10¢322026-10-10T19:28:18Z
Above 4.00% 2027-10-27T17:55:00Z 60¢94¢97¢20.6k2026-10-09T23:02:07Z
Above 4.25% 2027-10-27T17:55:00Z 50¢78¢95¢20.4k2026-10-09T23:02:08Z

Series, events, markets

Kalshi nests three levels, and the middle one is easy to miss. Here it is in the series on this page.
KXFEDseriesthe recurring question — "Fed funds rate". Has a title and a category, never settles.
KXFED-26OCTeventone occurrence of it: a single expiration, this one closing 2026-10-28T17:55:00Z.
…-T4.00marketone binary contract inside that event — "Above 4.00%". Only markets have a bid, an ask, a book and a settlement.
KXFED is tracking 11 events averaging 14 markets each: a strike ladder per expiration. This dashboard subscribes per series, so a page can span several expirations at once — which is why every row shows its close time.