Pro Baseball Home Runs

Sports · KXMLBHR · 25 markets · 14 live · $190k traded

Implied probability by strike

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢$1$2$2KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLE-CLEBROCCHIO4-1: 8¢KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLE-CLEJADELL7-1: 14¢KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLE-CLEJRAMREZ11-1: 12¢KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLE-CWSCMONTGOMERY12-1: 12¢KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLE-CWSMMURAKAMI5-1: 18¢KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLE-CWSMVARGAS20-1: 14¢KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLE-CWSMMURAKAMI5-2: 1¢KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLE-CWSMVARGAS20-2: 0¢closes 2026-10-14T00:00:00ZKXMLBHR-26OCT112000LADMIL-LADMBETTS50-1: 10¢KXMLBHR-26OCT112000LADMIL-LADSOHTANI17-1: 15¢KXMLBHR-26OCT112000LADMIL-MILJCHOURIO11-1: 12¢KXMLBHR-26OCT112000LADMIL-LADFFREEMAN5-2: 0¢KXMLBHR-26OCT112000LADMIL-LADMBETTS50-2: 0¢KXMLBHR-26OCT112000LADMIL-LADSOHTANI17-2: 1¢closes 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z
shaded band: lognormal-cdf/v1 posterior, 95% credible — median $1, fitted 39.9h ago in 2.9s

Model minus market — where the fit disagrees

-57.5¢+0.0¢+57.5¢KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSBMONTGOMERY24-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSTPHAM39-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLEAMARTNEZ1-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSRGRICHUK34-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLECDELAUTER24-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLEAHEDGES27-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLENLOWE31-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSKTEEL8-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLESKWAN38-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLETBAZZANA37-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSCMEIDROTH10-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSBDOYLE9-1: market 50.0¢, model 100.0¢, edge +50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLECDELAUTER24-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSBDOYLE9-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLETBAZZANA37-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLENLOWE31-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSKTEEL8-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLEAMARTNEZ1-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSRGRICHUK34-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CLEAHEDGES27-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)KXMLBHR-26OCT082000CLECWS-CWSTPHAM39-2: market 50.0¢, model 0.0¢, edge -50.00¢ (P=1.00)$1$2$2green: model above market · opacity = posterior confidence

Busiest 25 of 25

MarketClosesBidAskLastVolumeUpdated
Brayan Rocchio: 1+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 7¢8¢8¢23.3k2026-10-10T19:46:41Z
Jo Adell: 1+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 13¢14¢14¢44.0k2026-10-10T19:46:28Z
Jo Adell: 2+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 0¢1¢2¢1.4k2026-10-10T19:32:28Z
José Ramírez: 1+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 12¢13¢13¢51.3k2026-10-10T19:47:05Z
José Ramírez: 2+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 0¢1¢1¢16.3k2026-10-10T19:11:21Z
Colson Montgomery: 1+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 12¢13¢13¢34.2k2026-10-10T19:46:38Z
Colson Montgomery: 2+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 0¢1¢2¢5.8k2026-10-10T19:32:39Z
Munetaka Murakami: 1+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 18¢19¢19¢50.5k2026-10-10T19:46:35Z
Munetaka Murakami: 2+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 0¢2¢2¢26.7k2026-10-10T19:44:16Z
Miguel Vargas: 1+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 13¢14¢14¢41.9k2026-10-10T19:46:33Z
Miguel Vargas: 2+ 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z 0¢1¢1¢14.6k2026-10-10T19:43:41Z
Andy Pages: 1+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 6¢8¢8¢2.7k2026-10-10T19:33:58Z
Andy Pages: 2+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 0¢1¢1¢1.6k2026-10-10T19:36:21Z
Freddie Freeman: 1+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 9¢10¢10¢29.6k2026-10-10T19:29:07Z
Freddie Freeman: 2+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 0¢1¢1¢4.2k2026-10-10T19:43:29Z
Mookie Betts: 1+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 8¢11¢10¢4.1k2026-10-10T19:47:15Z
Mookie Betts: 2+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 0¢1¢2¢1.0k2026-10-10T19:47:15Z
Shohei Ohtani: 1+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 13¢17¢17¢11.8k2026-10-10T19:47:01Z
Shohei Ohtani: 2+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 0¢2¢2¢1.9k2026-10-10T19:47:16Z
Brice Turang: 1+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 4¢5¢5¢2.2k2026-10-10T19:34:28Z
Brice Turang: 2+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 0¢1¢0¢02026-10-10T19:28:47Z
Jackson Chourio: 1+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 11¢14¢14¢5.2k2026-10-10T19:47:01Z
Jackson Chourio: 2+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 0¢2¢2¢3.2k2026-10-10T19:36:21Z
William Contreras: 1+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 10¢11¢11¢2.7k2026-10-10T18:04:16Z
William Contreras: 2+ 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z 0¢2¢0¢02026-10-10T19:36:21Z

Series, events, markets

Kalshi nests three levels, and the middle one is easy to miss. Here it is in the series on this page.
KXMLBHRseriesthe recurring question — "Pro Baseball Home Runs". Has a title and a category, never settles.
KXMLBHR-26OCT102000CWSCLEeventone occurrence of it: a single expiration, this one closing 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z.
…-CLEJRAMREZ11-1marketone binary contract inside that event — "José Ramírez: 1+". Only markets have a bid, an ask, a book and a settlement.
KXMLBHR is tracking 2 events averaging 12 markets each: a strike ladder per expiration. This dashboard subscribes per series, so a page can span several expirations at once — which is why every row shows its close time.